Difference between revisions of "Talk:Astral Plane"
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"If you do not have a [[Helm of opposite alignment]], you may use a probability trick to increase the chance to ascend on the second high altar you visit. It works so: first choose an altar without exploring it (left, right, middle), go explore an altar you didn't choose, then, if the first altar you explore wasn't the right one, go explore the remaining altar (the one you did not choose). It has a 2/3 chance to be the right one." | "If you do not have a [[Helm of opposite alignment]], you may use a probability trick to increase the chance to ascend on the second high altar you visit. It works so: first choose an altar without exploring it (left, right, middle), go explore an altar you didn't choose, then, if the first altar you explore wasn't the right one, go explore the remaining altar (the one you did not choose). It has a 2/3 chance to be the right one." | ||
| − | This 'technique' | + | This 'technique' does not help anything. The player has a 1/3 chance of picking the right altar on the first try. Whether or not you follow the above method the second altar you visit will have a 1/2 chance of being the right one (assuming the first one wasn't). The author of that method drew a mistaken parallel with the [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem Monty Hall problem] except there is no game show host to provide extra information about the alternatives that were not chosen thus the odds of picking the right one out of two is 1/2. [[User:DemonDoll|DemonDoll]] 14:10, 1 June 2009 (UTC) |
Revision as of 14:10, 1 June 2009
The following edit is misleading and was removed:
"If you do not have a Helm of opposite alignment, you may use a probability trick to increase the chance to ascend on the second high altar you visit. It works so: first choose an altar without exploring it (left, right, middle), go explore an altar you didn't choose, then, if the first altar you explore wasn't the right one, go explore the remaining altar (the one you did not choose). It has a 2/3 chance to be the right one."
This 'technique' does not help anything. The player has a 1/3 chance of picking the right altar on the first try. Whether or not you follow the above method the second altar you visit will have a 1/2 chance of being the right one (assuming the first one wasn't). The author of that method drew a mistaken parallel with the Monty Hall problem except there is no game show host to provide extra information about the alternatives that were not chosen thus the odds of picking the right one out of two is 1/2. DemonDoll 14:10, 1 June 2009 (UTC)
